Bid Model & Returns Analysis
Modeled on Project EVON consolidated NewCo — $80M capital ask for 3-way merger (taxi ops + technology + EV charging). Based on Jan 2026 teaser deck projections.
EVON NewCo — Deal Structure (from Teaser Deck)
Consolidated NewCo Proforma (Jan 2026 Teaser)
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Margin | YoY Growth | Implied EV (6.5x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $46M | $12M | 26% | — | $78M |
| 2026 | $82M | $35M | 43% | +78% | $228M |
| 2027 | $94M | $47M | 50% | +14% | $306M |
| 2028 | $117M | $66M | 56% | +24% | $429M |
| 2029 | $175M | $108M | 62% | +50% | $702M |
Uber Partnership Impact
AV / Robotaxi Cost Curve
EV Charging Proforma
Returns Sensitivity (on $80M Investment)
Based on 2025P EBITDA of $12M. If projections hold, 2029 EBITDA of $108M implies massive value creation.
Scenario Analysis — $80M Entry
5-year hold. Exit multiple applied to projected EBITDA. Key question: can management deliver the projected margin expansion from 26% to 62%?
| Scenario | 2029 EBITDA | Exit Multiple | Exit Value | MOIC | IRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Flat growth, no AV, minimal charging | $35M | 5.0x | $175M | 2.2x | 17% |
| Base Partial delivery on proforma | $66M | 6.5x | $429M | 5.4x | 40% |
| Teaser (Mgmt) Full teaser deck delivery | $108M | 6.5x | $702M | 8.8x | 55% |
| Bull Full delivery + multiple expansion | $108M | 8.0x | $864M | 10.8x | 61% |
Key Risks to Investment Thesis
EVON Technologies incorporated July 2025 — zero operating history. All projections are management estimates at marketing confidence.
Older proformas show $65.8M Year 1, teaser shows $46M. Different models, unclear which assumptions changed.
26% → 62% over 5 years requires flawless execution on AV transition, Uber partnership, and charging monetization simultaneously.
Full autonomy by 2028+ is aggressive. Regulatory, technology, and liability risks remain unresolved industry-wide.
100% Las Vegas dependency. Expansion to Dallas, Austin, Phoenix, LA, Orlando is aspiration, not committed.
11+ mislabeled documents in VDR. Financial models in corrupted Excel files. Management narrative ≠ sworn filings.
Sources & Uses (per Teaser Deck — $80M)
• Taxi acquisition includes 10% holdback with seller rollover option
• Fleet facility appraisal pending (expected by Jan 30, 2026)
• NVenergy ERTEP grant: $1.5M approved (reduces net capital need)
• Asset-light model target: no vehicles on balance sheet by 2027 (OEM agreement)
• Expansion capital (Dallas, Austin, Phoenix, LA, Orlando) NOT included in $80M